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Politics, Mature and taboo => Political Pundits => Topic started by: odeon on March 04, 2014, 12:21:56 AM

Title: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 04, 2014, 12:21:56 AM
Tensions mount as Putin seeks to expand his empire while claiming he's only out to protect Russians. Your thoughts?
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 04, 2014, 12:24:06 AM
My immediate reaction when hearing that "Crimea used to be part of Russia until 1954, you know" was that Russia should give back Karelia to Finland.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: bodie on March 04, 2014, 04:14:15 AM
Will there be a war?   :dunno:

This is what happens when land, or cities, in this case 'Crimea' are tossed around as gifts.   Crimea was given to Ukraine by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, who was himself half-Ukrainian.  It may have been a gift, but like many other gifts, the giver still feels some sense of ownership.  Fingers still in pies, so to speak.

Putin is an 'action' man.  I think his action in this case was not very well thought out.  People are comparing him to 'Hitler' and that is just nonsense.  I don't think Putin is planning to invade anywhere else.  He is a dangerous man, as I said already 'an action man' but he is no Hitler. ( He is a danger to himself if anything - in danger of collapsing and suffocating under the weight of his own ego maybe :zoinks:  )

I think this new, interim government in Ukraine either need to go or need to drastically rethink it's position regarding Russia.  One of its first actions was to repeal a 2012 law recognising Russian as an official regional language.   -  not a very clever move!  Why provoke Russia like this?

Sure, Putin has overreacted.  Apparently, during the 'disturbances' many of the Russian population of Ukraine have been chanting "Putin come".  Putin says he is protecting 'human rights' of his people in Ukraine,  which is interesting, cus, you know Russia is 'big' on human rights ::)

I don't think war is inevitable.  I think diplomacy could win.  Send for the world's top negotiators  - alas,   Nelson Mandela can't help in this one!

Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: Kapkao on March 04, 2014, 04:12:57 PM
my thoughts are that Putin is trying to reclaim Russia's old glory under the Soviet Union.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: Queen Victoria on March 04, 2014, 05:13:28 PM
The Crimean War, Part 2
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 04, 2014, 10:47:47 PM
my thoughts are that Putin is trying to reclaim Russia's old glory under the Soviet Union.

That's what I think, too. He'd certainly want to go back.

I'm not sure if he is stupid enough for a war. I hope he isn't.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: DirtDawg on March 05, 2014, 07:23:26 AM
my thoughts are that Putin is trying to reclaim Russia's old glory under the Soviet Union.

That's what I think, too. He'd certainly want to go back.

I'm not sure if he is stupid enough for a war. I hope he isn't.

I also hope he isn't!!

My country would have to become involved. Two war fronts is enough for anyone. No one should have to fight on three fronts.

As selfish as that sounds, I feel for those people who have spent two decades (or a century!) or more trying to find freedom from outside rule!
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 05, 2014, 08:43:13 AM
My immediate reaction when hearing that "Crimea used to be part of Russia until 1954, you know" was that Russia should give back Karelia to Finland.

Yeah, me too. These kinds of politics, well, they cannot be honest, if you think about it. How many good, honest reasons can you think of, for one country to roll into another, and start uprooting the place?
So it's obvious any justification is gonna be a bunch of hypocritical bullshit.

For Russia to make a move on the EU or Nato would be incredibly unwise, so that would be an enormous surprise. For geopolitical analysts, their invasion of Crimea is not that huge a surprise, it is a spot waiting to flare up, like Abkhazia and Ossetia was.
Another possible flashpoint can be, for example Belarus, who has "promised" a unification with Russia. If Belarus were to back out of this, and seek closer ties to Europe, one could see similar events unfolding there, but Crimea stands out because it wasn't always a part of the Ukrainian SSR (or ever), Crimea has a long history of being it's own Soviet Republic. This sets some precedents, people remember, and for example, Caucasus used to enjoy its own autonomy as a separate Soviet Republic for a short while. They have never forgotten this. As soon as the Soviet Union broke down, the Caucasus republics, most notably Chechnya, wanted to join all the other new nations into independence. They even achieved independence during Yeltsins useless rule, and for a while the "Ichkerian Republic of Chechnya" existed as a de facto independent nation, untill - - - Putin, rolled his army into Grozny, and litterally levelled the city to gravel, in one of the most extensive city destructions in post WW2 times.

If you ask a Russian, Crimea "Is Russian" and Ukrainian ownership is nothing but a lucky fluke for the Ukrainians. If you ask a Ukrainian, theyll tell you Crimea is Ukrainian, and ask a Crimean, they'll refer to the independence Crimea has often had in the past - and tell you Crimea is a country of it's own (It has been autonomous under Ukraine since the fall of Soviet)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 05, 2014, 08:51:27 AM
Short answer, yes. The U.S. is basically a war machine and it has been too long since it has manufactured/started one. The entire "leader of the free world" economy is BASED on war. Thems the breaks.

 :(
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 05, 2014, 08:59:36 AM
Short answer, yes. The U.S. is basically a war machine and it has been too long since it has manufactured/started one. The entire "leader of the free world" economy is BASED on war. Thems the breaks.

 :(

Nobody needs a huge clash-of-the-titans kind of war. Otherwise USA, Russia, China, India, heck even Brazil and Mexico would be smoldering holes by now.

The wars you mean are the easy containable wars. Wars you can guarantee to win. Like USA vs Grenada. USA vs Panama. Pathetic shit like that. Russia vs Georgia.

Every now and then they surprise themselves, with the Taliban or Viet Cong "Come on you guys, ur supposed to lose D:"
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 05, 2014, 09:12:03 AM
That would make sense to someone who was able to think, Zegh. Come here, and try to explain this to the U.S. executive branch. Bonus points if nobody says the word "potato" while you're talking.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 05, 2014, 09:20:35 AM
That would make sense to someone who was able to think, Zegh. Come here, and try to explain this to the U.S. executive branch. Bonus points if nobody says the word "potato" while you're talking.

But 'talk is cheap', America hasn't attacked any big foe yet. Mexico sits right next to you, why don't you just invade it? Cus - you can't afford to!
What politicians talk about, is mostly them blabbering to sound tough and bad. I realize there is a good deal of delusions of grandeur when they talk about steamrolling Iran - but consider this:
Iran being able to defend itself with nukes is just talk - they don't have any nukes.
A coordinated NATO effort could quite possibly have defeated the Iranian military, USA wouldn't have to do it alone. USA would have to do Mexico alone, cus there is no anti-Mexican rethoric around the world :D
And that's an example of a real limit, America is simply not powerful or wealthy enough to launch itself into a war with a real, considerable power, without any backup.
Nor is Russia.
Ukraine's stunted reaction to being invaded, I'm sure, did not come as a surprise to Russia. Had Russia suspected that Ukraine would go insta-batshit, raining mortars down on the invaders, there is no guarantee that Russia woulda tried to take them on like this.
I think WW2 is often a bit "too fresh in our minds", and we see it as likely that one power will suddenly try to ravage every one of its neighbors - but one must remember that Hitler based his victory prognoses in superstition and misinformation, bullshit like "we cannot lose, because our enemies aren't even proper humans"
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 05, 2014, 11:56:10 PM
Short answer, yes. The U.S. is basically a war machine and it has been too long since it has manufactured/started one. The entire "leader of the free world" economy is BASED on war. Thems the breaks.

 :(

Except that this one has little to do with the US.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 06, 2014, 10:22:14 AM
Short answer, yes. The U.S. is basically a war machine and it has been too long since it has manufactured/started one. The entire "leader of the free world" economy is BASED on war. Thems the breaks.

 :(

Except that this one has little to do with the US.

Oh, give it a while. The U.S. state will weasel in there somehow, at great cost to everyone involved and with the least risk to the state itself. Watch and see.  ;)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: bodie on March 06, 2014, 05:13:06 PM
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Yalta_Conference_%28Churchill%2C_Roosevelt%2C_Stalin%29_%28B%26W%29.jpg/350px-Yalta_Conference_%28Churchill%2C_Roosevelt%2C_Stalin%29_%28B%26W%29.jpg)

I remembered something about Crimea.   It hosted a very important conference in 1945 which was crucial in bringing about
the end of WWII

Churchill,  Roosevelt and Stalin are pictured above at that very conference.  Just saying....the irony :tard:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 06, 2014, 11:28:11 PM
Considering how that meeting also set the stage for the cold war, yes. The irony is staggering.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: 'andersom' on March 07, 2014, 02:09:02 AM
Who knows, how cold it will get.

Gazprom and such. :P
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 07, 2014, 09:14:42 AM
From what I understand, Crimea is important to Russia because (mostly) of military strategy. The Russian population living there obviously helps their cause, but their main objective is the Sevastopol naval base, which is large and adequate, and can house their extensive Black Sea fleet. This gives them fluid military mobility that reaches Southern Europe, but most importantly, a quick access fo the Middle East, such as an ability to stay in touch with their friends in Syria.

Take Sevastopol away from Russia, and they lose a lot of influence in the oil-rich Middle East, influence that will be left to the West to keep to itself

To understand why one base is so important to Russia, remember how we take for granted American access to around the planet, they have bases everywhere, because everyone is their friend (or afraid of being invaded)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 07, 2014, 11:26:03 AM
From what I understand, Crimea is important to Russia because (mostly) of military strategy. The Russian population living there obviously helps their cause, but their main objective is the Sevastopol naval base, which is large and adequate, and can house their extensive Black Sea fleet. This gives them fluid military mobility that reaches Southern Europe, but most importantly, a quick access fo the Middle East, such as an ability to stay in touch with their friends in Syria.

Take Sevastopol away from Russia, and they lose a lot of influence in the oil-rich Middle East, influence that will be left to the West to keep to itself

To understand why one base is so important to Russia, remember how we take for granted American access to around the planet, they have bases everywhere, because everyone is their friend (or afraid of being invaded)

Indeed. I thin Putin and his pals would find it a bit upsetting if the U.S. set up some big ol' missle bases in Ukraine with E.U. backing.

(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ3d9A439A53ChFhONDmwpOBqAIglIZa5IJhrcdpCS8N1ssFDE7pw)

(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTj-nB5mlibFxH_-EwpPOG7AQRWC-qfTL9YYw3rYMGOXwGE-wD1)

(https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ2VR90E-n-2StyeukSH5Bmb5V20fLgXlGMZ5M-IKc_jwojcNnV6w)

(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSjEohH4_hNNh-TwbzSD67H8QfK5QPh5Uz4m6OkohzbEuPBIlsweA)

(https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTupy0LMsaqSV9vnfLvU1e43Nxg6Qk59F2ftP1gslYkOb_7eVFExw)

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSNOncz-HGgYBCGIZgkR3XxhXHH6PRW8nfyt0_-BgR1d-uRvXWREw)


Right. This has nothing to do with dickwaving and challenges in pecking order at all. Ridiculous dramatics has no chance of killing millions of people, again. Right?
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 08, 2014, 03:17:33 AM
You do know that including half a dozen images of Obama and Putin won't magically build the argument that is missing in your text for you, right?
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: bodie on March 08, 2014, 04:06:20 AM
America need not be concerned  YET about this WWIII thing.   Going by the last one,  if it started today it would be a good three years before they join in.   :zoinks:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 08, 2014, 04:07:25 AM
Easier to start it than to join it later. :zoinks:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 08, 2014, 11:29:05 AM
You do know that including half a dozen images of Obama and Putin won't magically build the argument that is missing in your text for you, right?

You do know that i'm merely making fun of a potentially bad situation that if occurs, I will neither support or participate in, right?
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 09, 2014, 11:56:25 PM
You do know that including half a dozen images of Obama and Putin won't magically build the argument that is missing in your text for you, right?

You do know that i'm merely making fun of a potentially bad situation that if occurs, I will neither support or participate in, right?

You could have fooled me.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: bodie on March 10, 2014, 08:30:30 PM
Anyway, Odeon perhaps you should be truly like your avatar and go and book a bed-in protest in an Amsterdam Hotel
(http://img.timeinc.net/time/photoessays/2012/top10_celebprotestors/t10_protestors_lennonono.jpg)
I got some stripy jimjams and can send them to you!

 :zoinks:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 10, 2014, 11:20:21 PM
That should do the trick, me protesting.  :laugh:

"Who does he think he is? John Lennon?"
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: 'andersom' on March 11, 2014, 03:57:18 AM
Anyway, Odeon perhaps you should be truly like your avatar and go and book a bed-in protest in an Amsterdam Hotel
(http://img.timeinc.net/time/photoessays/2012/top10_celebprotestors/t10_protestors_lennonono.jpg)
I got some stripy jimjams and can send them to you!

 :zoinks:

Bring them in person to Amsterdam. I will come too, to make the pictures.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 11, 2014, 06:56:05 AM
This definitely has a high chance of escalating into a full scale war, even worse than just between Ukraine and Russia. Russia will take Crimea no matter what and likely be forced to invade Eastern Ukraine to further secure it. EU/US have interest in Ukraine mainly for economic/strategic military reasons respectively and they can't just do nothing or risk appearing weak. Even with sanction attempts, they risk escalating this into something far beyond Ukraine. I'm not joking when I say conditions for a world war could brew from this.

All eyes should be on the 16th of March, that's when it'll really go to shit rapidly. The moment Crimea is annexed.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: Jack on March 11, 2014, 04:12:04 PM
Welcome back.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 11, 2014, 11:33:51 PM
What troubles me is that the world is already losing interest. The headlines are now about a missing plane and the usual Justin Bieber drivel. ::)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 12, 2014, 12:03:24 AM
Welcome back.

Thanks.

What troubles me is that the world is already losing interest. The headlines are now about a missing plane and the usual Justin Bieber drivel. ::)

I don't think it's because they've lost interest, it's more likely the media is intentionally toning it down a bit and suppressing it because it was reaching tinderbox conditions. Had they kept up with the rhetoric full speed, things could have exploded overnight.

On an unrelated note, I just love how the new Ukrainian government is threatening to rebuild its nuclear weapons stockpile. Like that's not totally going to have Russia invade their entire land in a "muh WMDs" scenario. ::)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 12, 2014, 12:06:40 AM
I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 12, 2014, 12:12:26 AM
5 more days until that will abruptly change, I can guarantee it.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 12, 2014, 12:15:59 AM
I'll watch the headlines.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: 'andersom' on March 12, 2014, 05:49:21 AM
I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

They want to bring something new, to ensure sales.

At the moment it looks like all parties are making plans and thinking. Not much to tell about that. And background big articles are not the thing, when it is not a Saturday newspaper.

Wonder if the Ukraine will become part, politically, of the European Union soon.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 12, 2014, 10:13:27 AM
I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

Well I mean, what normal person is interested in war? That's not a natural part of the human condition at all, its taught nonsense.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 12, 2014, 10:21:50 AM
You do know that including half a dozen images of Obama and Putin won't magically build the argument that is missing in your text for you, right?

You do know that i'm merely making fun of a potentially bad situation that if occurs, I will neither support or participate in, right?

You could have fooled me.

You probably think I am an American ideologue, which I can't blame you for because how my country and it's population must look from outside the empire.

So: Just take my word for it, or don't.  :)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 12, 2014, 10:55:47 AM
Don't guarantee things, professor, especially not things of the future.
This isn't 1938.
We have measures in place, that did not exist in 1938. Putin is not Hitler. Ukraine is not Austria.

Just because observers and analysts have drawn these paralels, that is all they are, just paralels. It doesn't mean Putin is sitting around seeking to replicate Hitler step by step, "First we take Crimea, then we take Berlin >:0"

Maybe you weren't talking about these comparisons in particular, and refering to the fact that Ukraine has refused legitimacy to the upcoming referendum, and that annexation would signify a hostile Russian action - but then again, what's the difference between then and now? If Ukraine plans to actually _attack Russia_, why wait untill a date that everyone can guess? They would basically be walking into a meat grinder.
I'm not gonna guess what's gonna happen, cus I don't know. Least of all am I gonna try to guarantee what happens :D
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 12, 2014, 09:56:12 PM
The only measure in place is the nuclear deterrence. That only averts a sudden rash over-the-top action.

The problem with just taking Crimea is the fact that Ukraine can isolate its northern border, cutting it off and force only sea trades (which can be hampered too if the Ukrainian navy tries anything by sea). Russia may then be forced to claim a small portion of Eastern Ukraine to form a clear land route to avert such attempts of isolation, and serve as a buffer zone to protect Crimea from a direct land assault. So I'm speculating the Ukraine will attempt a more passive-aggressive approach to punish Crimea by attempting to isolate it from the mainland entirely. That means if any power, water, or other infrastructure that provides for any part of Crimea is from the mainland, it could be cut off posing a serious problem.

Also the implications are more complex than just the land dispute. There's an economic factor too. Any attempts to sanction Russia will destabilize regional economies as it likely then turn into an economic war. Worse case, Russia seizes all western assets in their country as its own, dumps the USD as its reserve currency and cashes in on the US debt they've purchased.

The west cannot make any move against Russia without triggering a chain reaction of events that will escalate things. The west can't sit idly by because it'll demonstrate just how powerless the west is in stopping Russia, making other neighboring countries of Russia worried. So it all depends on whenever the west makes itself appear weak and allows Russia to just take Crimea with no strings attached (making their other allies nervous) or risk triggering a war either economically or militarily.

So that's why I'm anticipating someone bad is brewing here. The only thing I'm likely wrong on is the timing of it, it may take days, months or even years for the consequence of the annexation to be felt. Funnily enough it all comes down to what the west does in response to Russia after annexing Crimea.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 12, 2014, 10:16:04 PM
I'm not gonna guess what's gonna happen, cus I don't know. Least of all am I gonna try to guarantee what happens :D

Where's the fun in that? Come on, surely you have some idea. Let's hear it. :toporly:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: renaeden on March 12, 2014, 10:33:23 PM
Hi Professor! Good to see you.:)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 12, 2014, 11:19:53 PM
I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

Well I mean, what normal person is interested in war? That's not a natural part of the human condition at all, its taught nonsense.

But we are. We are interested in conflict, we are interested in drama.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 12, 2014, 11:21:44 PM
You do know that including half a dozen images of Obama and Putin won't magically build the argument that is missing in your text for you, right?

You do know that i'm merely making fun of a potentially bad situation that if occurs, I will neither support or participate in, right?

You could have fooled me.

You probably think I am an American ideologue, which I can't blame you for because how my country and it's population must look from outside the empire.

So: Just take my word for it, or don't.  :)

Eh?
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 12, 2014, 11:23:22 PM
I'm not gonna guess what's gonna happen, cus I don't know. Least of all am I gonna try to guarantee what happens :D

Where's the fun in that? Come on, surely you have some idea. Let's hear it. :toporly:

It will all end in tears. :zoinks:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 13, 2014, 02:42:35 AM
Another motivator for Russia to annex Crimea and possibly go further:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-08/shell-to-drill-first-wells-in-10-billion-ukrainian-project.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-08/shell-to-drill-first-wells-in-10-billion-ukrainian-project.html)

Quote
The country could hold as much as 42 trillion cubic feet (1.2 trillion cubic meters) of shale gas, the third largest reserve in Europe, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimate from 2011.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 13, 2014, 03:01:39 AM
Hi Professor! Good to see you.:)

Thanks. :)

On topic: It seems the Russians are locking down the Crimea border in anticipation of the referendum.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: El on March 13, 2014, 06:14:56 AM
I do think the world is losing interest. It's how people are. And no, I do not have any faith in the media. They do not tone things down, they refocus.

Well I mean, what normal person is interested in war? That's not a natural part of the human condition at all, its taught nonsense.

But we are. We are interested in conflict, we are interested in drama.
Yes, but this is conflict and drama that involves actually learning about and understanding another country and culture and their history.  There's backstory which we haven't been spoonfed, so it's less interesting because we understand it less.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 13, 2014, 09:03:46 AM
Prof, Russia may not even annex the land. I know I'm playing a bit of devils advocate here, and that can be risky amongst aspies, my friend actually yelled at me on the bus because i pointed out that Ukraine counts this as an invasion, "BUT THEY ALLREADY HAD BASES THEEEEEEEEEEEERE!!!!" "i know, but ukraine counts it as an invasion" "WTF ARE YOU STUPID!?" "dude, im not ukraine... "

But the _official options_ are independence or annexation, and officially Russia proposes and supports both. Independence would of course be a fake farse as with Abkhazia and Ossetia, but they are not annexed into the federartion (even if they are as good as)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ProfessorFarnsworth on March 13, 2014, 09:22:04 AM
But my position is that, why bother letting Crimea be independent and risk constant outside interference, when annexing makes it so if anyone tries anything, it'll be seen as an attack on Russia directly? So annexing it would be a more appealing option to further enforce its security. Not to mentioned as I mentioned earlier, there's a lot of shale gas within the region of Crimea borders which becomes Russian resources upon annexing.

But I can see the alternative of independence being a compromise option if Russia feels it's under too much pressure. Problem is, Russia has its gas exports to leverage against the EU, so the EU doesn't really have a position of threatening Russia with significant sanctions enough to warrant that. The U.S isn't in too much of a position to threaten Russia either, considering how aggressive Russia can retaliate economically.

That's probably why Russia will be rather bold about their moves. They're not in a position to be severely threatened right now (at least not enough for the west to risk doing so) and they know it.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 13, 2014, 10:02:20 AM
But my position is that, why bother letting Crimea be independent and risk constant outside interference, when annexing makes it so if anyone tries anything, it'll be seen as an attack on Russia directly? So annexing it would be a more appealing option to further enforce its security. Not to mentioned as I mentioned earlier, there's a lot of shale gas within the region of Crimea borders which becomes Russian resources upon annexing.

But I can see the alternative of independence being a compromise option if Russia feels it's under too much pressure. Problem is, Russia has its gas exports to leverage against the EU, so the EU doesn't really have a position of threatening Russia with significant sanctions enough to warrant that. The U.S isn't in too much of a position to threaten Russia either, considering how aggressive Russia can retaliate economically.

That's probably why Russia will be rather bold about their moves. They're not in a position to be severely threatened right now (at least not enough for the west to risk doing so) and they know it.

I agree, it's just that I keep seeing people bangin them war drums, making paralels to the first similar event that comes to mind "omg its WW3!" but these kinds of events happen often. Peru made incursions into Ecuador twice after allready annexing half their landmass back in 1941. Nobody gave a shit (except heartbroken Ecuadorian and Peruvian berieveds). No world wars erupted :D
Ukraine is not allied with anybody, it stands alone. Russia is a VETO nation breaking UN Rules. Have we seen this before? Oh yeah, every damn day since USA has been a UN member.

Even if Russia were to pour into Ukraine, full force, it doesn't mean a cataclysmic domino effect, ala Hitler. I've seen on other forums, especially in Lithuania, there are "kremlin-trolls" causing ruckus on the internet, Russians are warned against travelling there, and Lithuanians in general are made into bad-guys. This worries people, and again, they associate with the next similar thing they know. Russia is notorious for dick-waving gestures, hell they once moved _thousands_ of MBT's to the Norwegian border, scaring the piss out of the frontier guards there. We can't lose our cool. We have to see reality for what it is NOW, not freak out over what it might turn into, in the worst possible scenario.
Hell, worst case scenario is that Obama nukes Moscow, Moscow nukes America, and China nukes everybody.
Ghouls roam the earth :M
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 13, 2014, 12:58:00 PM
Every time this happens its a dice roll, man. All it takes is enough of the right(or wrong) people being in a bad mood at the wrong time and that's it. I mean, tons of people die. Currency fails. Humanity loses several generations of progress...

Its a shitty thing to be playing around with.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 13, 2014, 02:26:29 PM
I mean, tons of people die. Currency fails. Humanity loses several generations of progress...

bottom line of it
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 13, 2014, 05:10:36 PM
Every damn time, and its already happened lots of times. Its silly to think we're somehow "safe" from that in our super duper advanced version of "democratic society".
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 14, 2014, 12:17:34 AM
All the bad things happen elsewhere. :M
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: 'andersom' on March 14, 2014, 01:53:42 AM
But my position is that, why bother letting Crimea be independent and risk constant outside interference, when annexing makes it so if anyone tries anything, it'll be seen as an attack on Russia directly? So annexing it would be a more appealing option to further enforce its security. Not to mentioned as I mentioned earlier, there's a lot of shale gas within the region of Crimea borders which becomes Russian resources upon annexing.

But I can see the alternative of independence being a compromise option if Russia feels it's under too much pressure. Problem is, Russia has its gas exports to leverage against the EU, so the EU doesn't really have a position of threatening Russia with significant sanctions enough to warrant that. The U.S isn't in too much of a position to threaten Russia either, considering how aggressive Russia can retaliate economically.

That's probably why Russia will be rather bold about their moves. They're not in a position to be severely threatened right now (at least not enough for the west to risk doing so) and they know it.

I agree, it's just that I keep seeing people bangin them war drums, making paralels to the first similar event that comes to mind "omg its WW3!" but these kinds of events happen often. Peru made incursions into Ecuador twice after allready annexing half their landmass back in 1941. Nobody gave a shit (except heartbroken Ecuadorian and Peruvian berieveds). No world wars erupted :D
Ukraine is not allied with anybody, it stands alone. Russia is a VETO nation breaking UN Rules. Have we seen this before? Oh yeah, every damn day since USA has been a UN member.

Even if Russia were to pour into Ukraine, full force, it doesn't mean a cataclysmic domino effect, ala Hitler. I've seen on other forums, especially in Lithuania, there are "kremlin-trolls" causing ruckus on the internet, Russians are warned against travelling there, and Lithuanians in general are made into bad-guys. This worries people, and again, they associate with the next similar thing they know. Russia is notorious for dick-waving gestures, hell they once moved _thousands_ of MBT's to the Norwegian border, scaring the piss out of the frontier guards there. We can't lose our cool. We have to see reality for what it is NOW, not freak out over what it might turn into, in the worst possible scenario.
Hell, worst case scenario is that Obama nukes Moscow, Moscow nukes America, and China nukes everybody.
Ghouls roam the earth :M

The "OMG it's WW3!". Don't know how many times I heard that claim already. As long as I can recall. Cold war, middle east, every major incident that had a chance to really escalate since 1970 brought a tension like that. I know that as a little kid, I sometimes was very scared, because of it.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 15, 2014, 03:04:44 AM
As a kid there was sometimes reason to be scared, too. Remember that 70s book, "The Day After"? The threat was somehow more real then.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 15, 2014, 07:53:01 AM
As a kid there was sometimes reason to be scared, too. Remember that 70s book, "The Day After"? The threat was somehow more real then.

You're from the seventies?  :hahaha:

My mother recalls the fear of nuclear war that they had, that I've never actually felt, despite the last "peak" being during the 80s. I was busy playing with sand and drawing with crayons.

One thing that is weird to think about, is that during my childhood, it suddenly came a period where we couldn't eat anything from the woods anymore. We could before - but suddenly we couldn't! Because they were radioactive! (chernobyl, for those not getting it) Creepy shit!
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: 'andersom' on March 15, 2014, 08:13:15 AM
As a kid there was sometimes reason to be scared, too. Remember that 70s book, "The Day After"? The threat was somehow more real then.

You're from the seventies?  :hahaha:

My mother recalls the fear of nuclear war that they had, that I've never actually felt, despite the last "peak" being during the 80s. I was busy playing with sand and drawing with crayons.

One thing that is weird to think about, is that during my childhood, it suddenly came a period where we couldn't eat anything from the woods anymore. We could before - but suddenly we couldn't! Because they were radioactive! (chernobyl, for those not getting it) Creepy shit!

Odeon is from the sixties.







So am I.



The Chernobyl fear was totally different from the underlying and ongoing fear of the decade before.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 15, 2014, 08:21:18 AM
As a kid there was sometimes reason to be scared, too. Remember that 70s book, "The Day After"? The threat was somehow more real then.

You're from the seventies?  :hahaha:

My mother recalls the fear of nuclear war that they had, that I've never actually felt, despite the last "peak" being during the 80s. I was busy playing with sand and drawing with crayons.

One thing that is weird to think about, is that during my childhood, it suddenly came a period where we couldn't eat anything from the woods anymore. We could before - but suddenly we couldn't! Because they were radioactive! (chernobyl, for those not getting it) Creepy shit!

Odeon is from the sixties.







So am I.



The Chernobyl fear was totally different from the underlying and ongoing fear of the decade before.

Oh, I know, but that's sortof the closest I get to remembering anything similar, a sort of palpable global threat :D

I also remember the dissolution of the Soviet Union as something I actually found noteworthy: People had always been correcting me, especially my dad, whenever I said "Russia" he went "Nono, it's called The Soviet Union" and I always wondered where the hell Russia was, in that case.
Finally, there WAS a country called Russia, and it had been in the fucking Soviet Union this whole time!

By now, I know much more, and it irks me that my dad STILL corrects me, I'm all "and then the Russians would - " "No, no, it's the Soviets!" "DAD. THE RUSSIANS. FROM THE RUSSIAN SSR, OF THE SOVIET UNION. THE RUSSIANS AS OPPOSED TO THE KAZAKHS AND THE LITHUANIANS. THE RUSSIANS, DAD." "Okay okay o_o"
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 16, 2014, 02:12:59 AM
I was studying at the uni when Chernobyl happened. As physics students, none of us was particularly worried but me and a mate wanted to sell umbrellas wrapped in tinfoil to the public. There was money to be made.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: 'andersom' on March 16, 2014, 08:24:06 AM
I was studying at the uni when Chernobyl happened. As physics students, none of us was particularly worried but me and a mate wanted to sell umbrellas wrapped in tinfoil to the public. There was money to be made.

I was hiking all day, with a friend in shorts and tank-tops. When we came home in the evening, we heard we should have been inside all day, or at least covered up well.
One of my flatmates refused to eat fresh vegetables for over half a year. She became a zealous believer in tinned food. Made cooking for all just a bit harder.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 16, 2014, 11:50:31 AM
There was money to be made.

Capitalist!
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 16, 2014, 11:02:50 PM
There was money to be made.

Capitalist!

Yes!
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 16, 2014, 11:14:26 PM
I was studying at the uni when Chernobyl happened. As physics students, none of us was particularly worried but me and a mate wanted to sell umbrellas wrapped in tinfoil to the public. There was money to be made.

I was hiking all day, with a friend in shorts and tank-tops. When we came home in the evening, we heard we should have been inside all day, or at least covered up well.
One of my flatmates refused to eat fresh vegetables for over half a year. She became a zealous believer in tinned food. Made cooking for all just a bit harder.

For months, there was a heated debate in Sweden about what to do with the livestock that was exposed to the fallout from the accident. The general opinion was based on fear--people didn't want to eat meat from the poor animals, worrying about cancer and whatnot. Some of the more vocal members of the public worried about mutations. ::)

As physics students, we pointed out that the meat could feed the elderly for years. Cesium 137 has a halflife of 30 years or so.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: 'andersom' on March 17, 2014, 01:06:05 AM
I was studying at the uni when Chernobyl happened. As physics students, none of us was particularly worried but me and a mate wanted to sell umbrellas wrapped in tinfoil to the public. There was money to be made.

I was hiking all day, with a friend in shorts and tank-tops. When we came home in the evening, we heard we should have been inside all day, or at least covered up well.
One of my flatmates refused to eat fresh vegetables for over half a year. She became a zealous believer in tinned food. Made cooking for all just a bit harder.

For months, there was a heated debate in Sweden about what to do with the livestock that was exposed to the fallout from the accident. The general opinion was based on fear--people didn't want to eat meat from the poor animals, worrying about cancer and whatnot. Some of the more vocal members of the public worried about mutations. ::)

As physics students, we pointed out that the meat could feed the elderly for years. Cesium 137 has a halflife of 30 years or so.

You brute, feeding that to the elderly.

Look what has become of them, most are now dead.  :bodie:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: RageBeoulve on March 17, 2014, 10:04:11 AM
There was money to be made.

Capitalist!

Capitalism never existed. What kind of nonsense is this? :nerdy:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 17, 2014, 11:35:05 PM
I was studying at the uni when Chernobyl happened. As physics students, none of us was particularly worried but me and a mate wanted to sell umbrellas wrapped in tinfoil to the public. There was money to be made.

I was hiking all day, with a friend in shorts and tank-tops. When we came home in the evening, we heard we should have been inside all day, or at least covered up well.
One of my flatmates refused to eat fresh vegetables for over half a year. She became a zealous believer in tinned food. Made cooking for all just a bit harder.

For months, there was a heated debate in Sweden about what to do with the livestock that was exposed to the fallout from the accident. The general opinion was based on fear--people didn't want to eat meat from the poor animals, worrying about cancer and whatnot. Some of the more vocal members of the public worried about mutations. ::)

As physics students, we pointed out that the meat could feed the elderly for years. Cesium 137 has a halflife of 30 years or so.

You brute, feeding that to the elderly.

Look what has become of them, most are now dead.  :bodie:

That was the plan. :zoinks:
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 17, 2014, 11:37:50 PM
There was money to be made.

Capitalist!

Capitalism never existed. What kind of nonsense is this? :nerdy:

That's interesting, considering how it is the dominant system in the western world today.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 18, 2014, 08:14:53 AM
Annexation is complete, uneventful
But Ukraine is still mobilizing, so it now is up to them to make this violent. Weird turn of affairs...
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 19, 2014, 12:58:35 AM
It's surprising how fast the whole thing went. Putin didn't waste any time.

I have to say I find that 97% figure in favour of joining Russia quite ludicrous. There's no way the vote wasn't rigged.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: ZEGH8578 on March 19, 2014, 06:28:41 AM
It's surprising how fast the whole thing went. Putin didn't waste any time.

I have to say I find that 97% figure in favour of joining Russia quite ludicrous. There's no way the vote wasn't rigged.

Such distrust :(
(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/03/04/article-2109993-12076633000005DC-789_634x484.jpg)
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: Dexter Morgan on March 20, 2014, 10:28:39 AM
It's surprising how fast the whole thing went. Putin didn't waste any time.

I have to say I find that 97% figure in favour of joining Russia quite ludicrous. There's no way the vote wasn't rigged.
Damn CIA manipulating election results.  It just goes to show Putin is weak compared to glorious leader Kim Jong Un.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 20, 2014, 11:55:55 PM
The situation is quite scary now. I have to say, I did not believe that this is how it would turn out to be. :(
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: MLA on March 16, 2023, 11:31:20 AM
But my position is that, why bother letting Crimea be independent and risk constant outside interference, when annexing makes it so if anyone tries anything, it'll be seen as an attack on Russia directly? So annexing it would be a more appealing option to further enforce its security. Not to mentioned as I mentioned earlier, there's a lot of shale gas within the region of Crimea borders which becomes Russian resources upon annexing.

But I can see the alternative of independence being a compromise option if Russia feels it's under too much pressure. Problem is, Russia has its gas exports to leverage against the EU, so the EU doesn't really have a position of threatening Russia with significant sanctions enough to warrant that. The U.S isn't in too much of a position to threaten Russia either, considering how aggressive Russia can retaliate economically.

That's probably why Russia will be rather bold about their moves. They're not in a position to be severely threatened right now (at least not enough for the west to risk doing so) and they know it.

Where did he go anyway?
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 17, 2023, 02:34:27 PM
Where did who go?
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 17, 2023, 02:36:00 PM
I forgot about this thread. It seems weird that it wasn't revived earlier, but I2 is far from that kind pf place these days.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: MLA on March 19, 2023, 07:59:55 PM
Where did who go?

Farnsworth.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on March 20, 2023, 02:15:20 PM
Where did who go?

Farnsworth.

:dunno:

People sometimes leave.
Title: Re: Will There Be A War?
Post by: odeon on April 04, 2023, 02:38:21 PM
Who knows, how cold it will get.

Gazprom and such. :P

Reading the thread again. This comment in particular is spot on, especially if you've read Catherine Belton's Putin's People.