I got to actually do math today at work as I am determining the probability of an explosion occurring during the launch of a decoy used to distract the seekers of incoming anti-ship missiles. These particular decoys have exploded twice on launch recently and may have solid propellant in the rocket motor that is degrading, or some other component like the igniter, due to their age.
This is the sixth order polynomial that fits the data, where x is the number of launches and y is the number of failures, in this case explosions in the launch tube:
y = 2E-23x6 - 7E-19x5 + 9E-15x4 - 5E-11x3 + 1E-07x2 - 0.0001x