Let's forget about France for a moment. All of the super powers, and respectively their allies have a financial and political stake in what's been occurring in the middle east over the past few decades. Personally don't see any way around the inevitable of Europe assimilating and absorbing the middle east. In a way that process has already begun, by assimilating a portion of its general population. That's why the UK can't be the bad guy right now, they must suddenly be the arms open welcoming types to a flooding of immigration even though they've never been in any way so welcoming before, causing a culture of people to in essence be very quickly accepting the political rule of other nations. Though due to proximity, the UK will one day need to assume the role of the power they are, and are to be, with a certain higher level of governing power over the middle east. You like to think about future maps, zeg. Jack has a very interesting big picture perspective of what's really going on over there, and interested to know what you think about that.
You make good points, and to be completely honest, I deliberately try to avoid the most-likely scenarios, because... they make me uncomfortable
They are reminders that huge wars will not stay clear of any region for more than 1-2 generations, and that all ethnicities, including nice white people, are just as doomed to be showered in horror when they least expect it. Every country, region, at peace, at the time, think peace is the norm - just as we think now. People in Iraq laughed and eyerolled, when confronted with the prospect of an American invasion, and that even after having had a war with America - people are quick to regard everything but right-now as almost fantasy.
I do believe that the first nuclear attack since WW2 will happen in the Middle East. Israel is an extension of the west, in the middle east, a colony that remains, and that is few by the west to be impenetrable. Were it your average independent country, it would have been destroyed allready back in 1947, since no minor country could possibly withstand the all out attack from every one of its neighbors.
So, as you imply, it is evident that the west prefers to have a firm foot still within the Middle East, but I prefer not to speculate too detailedly what will happen next. It is true tho, what you say, that "good guy" roles are only temporary, and obviously, these roles must appear convincing untill then. America is a huge example of just that, juggling a bloated "good guy"-role, with almost continous warfare, and a practical world-domination agenda, ala Mordor.